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Singapore is a sovereign republic, with a legal system based on the English common law. This year, 2012, they asked for input from the public into some of the issues they are facing. Here is my proposal;



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A Proposal for

The Golden Years
in the Republic of Singapore.

By Philip Vanderhoofven

 

 

 

 

INTRODUCTION

The global economic center is shifting toward Asia from the West. The massive population growth of China and India are difficult to comprehend. Looking at all the complexities of Asia’s rise requires a central point of focus to observe the transformation of the global economy. This paper looks at the shifting population structures at the convergence of two of Asia’s largest countries. India is renowned for their engineering expertise, while China displays the worlds finest work ethic exemplified by massive public projects such as the Great Wall of China or the Three Gorges Dam. These two countries represent the brains and brawn of our global economic future. To travel between these two countries you could either climb over the tallest mountain range in the world or go around the coast by sea. The economic center of gravity is where these two forces converge at the east entrance to the Straits of Malacca. 80% of the world’s commerce travels this route through a narrow straight only three miles wide between the southern most tip on the continent of Asia and the Indonesia archipelago. This choke point on the globe is a supertanker highway constantly operating at rush hour traffic levels. This is the main street of the world where Singapore lives on the busiest corner. At the mid point between India and China, Singapore is the gateway to Asia. “The future of Singapore is the hub of Asia’s emerging markets.” (Dixon, 2011) They have built a first world nation out of this strategic location and the courage to succeed. So focused on building the future of Singapore, as most industrialized nations, the population structure required for this future has began to unravel. Singapore’s aging population and low fertility rate could have an effect on Asia’s Global emerging market.
The Republic of Singapore is a city/state on a small grouping of islands slightly larger than the island of Oahu in Hawaii but with over six times the population level. Singapore has a population over five million people living on 433 square miles. It is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Their biggest challenges besides population include the lack of agricultural production and being at sea level, they are vulnerable to a catastrophic climatic event or the gradual rise in sea level due to climate change.
Established by The British colonialists as a military outpost many years ago to compete with the Dutch traders. The British influence has laid the political structure for the Republic of Singapore to develop a free market economy transforming into one of the most important cities in the world. During World War Two, the Japanese occupation spurned the population to shun all future forms of occupation, colonization, or subjugation. As the British retreated, Singapore initially joined forces with Malaysia only to be ejected two years later because of the challenges of integrating such a diverse population under the subjugation of an ethnic Malaysian mantle. 
Singapore not only survived the challenges of racial integration, they have thrived from the synergies of diversity. The generation that lived through these challenges have reached the Golden Years. A quarter of Singapore’s workforces are beginning retirement this year in 2012. This is the noble generation that transformed an abandoned British outpost into the jewel at the tip of Asia. Malaysia wanted nothing to do with these challenges of race integration and asked Singapore to build their own country in 1965. Guided by Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore formed a new nation of multi-cultural, multi-ethnic, people all speaking several different languages. (Yew, 2000) Singapore today has a population of 5,353,494 (Chinese 76.8%, Malay 13.9%, Indian 7.9%, other 1.4%). The religious views are as varied (Buddhist 42.5%, Muslim 14.9%, Christian 9.8%, Taoist 8.5%, Hindu 4%, Catholic 4.8%). There are four official languages (Mandarin 35%, English 23%, Malay 14.1%, Tamil 3.2%). (Central Intelligence Agency, 2012) The economic model that Singapore represents is often called a miracle. The real miracle was forging a nation with such a diverse population. This challenge was the key to Singapore’s success and those that lived through it have much to be proud of as they enter into their golden years of retirement. In less then 50 years, they transformed Singapore from a nation of third world status to building the worlds 5th largest free market economy with a GDP of $59,900 per capita with purchasing power parity. (Central Intelligence Agency, 2012) This surpasses the US on the same list at $48,387 per capita.
“What was the recipe for this miraculous growth? Economic analysts have pointed to the stereotypical traits of the Chinese, who make up 78% of the population: a will to succeed; a sense of community; a respect for authority; and, an undeniable gift for business.” (Soliven, 2008)
The industrialized labor force of 2,795,000 people strong has one of the lowest unemployment rates of any country at 2.2%.  (Smith, et al., 2010) However, Singapore also has the lowest fertility rate on the planet at .78% coupled with the second highest longevity after Japan of 82 years. (Central Intelligence Agency, 2012) The population is imploding. It is important to study this effect on Singapore because it is key to Asia’s economic emergence.

“Singapore has achieved one of the highest levels of per capita income in the world, through sound economic planning and a stress on building its human capital. Yet its enviable living conditions are at risk of being enjoyed by fewer citizens, and indeed themselves placed in jeopardy, by the continued very low fertility levels. Ultra-low fertility and growing reluctance by citizens to accept an increasing share of foreign-born pose difficult dilemmas for population policy, given the planning scenario of reaching a resident population of 6.5 million. A range of pro-marriage and [pronatalism] policies has failed to raise fertility substantially, while past success in modifying population trends and structure through migration has now encountered the twin problems of political constraints on the volume of immigration that is acceptable and a possible increase in emigration of Singapore citizens.” (Jones, 2012)

If the economic future is in Asia and Singapore is set to play a key role, these population challenges could pose a problem. Singapore has a great location for trade. Singapore has the busiest seaport in the world, one of the busiest airports, and is a major development center for technology innovation and financial services. (Dixon, 2011) It is the gateway to Asia with strong ties to Europe. It has been compared to Switzerland of the East, a neutral hub able to broker all types of agreements. As the prime global city in Asia; Singapore could be the corner stone of Asia’s Future. Because of the strategic placement of Singapore on the Globe, the economy is expected to continue its trajectory increasing the tiny island nation states wealth and status in the world. But what potential impact could Singapore’s shifting population and workforce have on the emerging Asian Market?

Magnitude of the Problem

Estimates by 2030, have two workers for every retiree. (National Population and talent division, 2012) See figure one at the end of this article to see the Age Structure of “Singapore’s Population Bubble.” (Bourne, 2007) The aging population is reaching retirement without a replacement fertility rate to support them. With a birth rate of 8.5 births per 1,000 it means that its population replacement rate is the lowest in the world. This is a shrinking rate. The Singapore government is well aware of the problem and has been actively pursuing foreign immigrants and expatriates to live and work in the country. But foreign workers already comprise of 35.8 percent of the labor force. (Smith, et al., 2010)
The demographics will continue to be transformed by immigration. Parallels can be drawn to the transformation of the USA’s low fertility rate coupled with increased immigration. Singapore is truly a Global City drawing in talent from the best and brightest the world has to offer. Like the USA, the strength comes from the diversity of the population and the synergistic opportunities that are borne out of a multicultural cooperation instead of a single ethnic monopoly. Keep this in mind while looking toward the future demographics. The importance of this city to Asia cannot be underestimated as the rest of Asia looks to Singapore as a model for their industrialized development.
Since their independence in 1965, the people of Singapore have worked through the challenges of managing a diversified population. They have built up an empire with the Chinese hard work ethic and with multicultural cooperation have made smart decisions luring in multi-national corporations of high tech industries to set up operations in Singapore. They also were the first Asian financial market to fill the global void establishing a 24-hour financial day.
Singapore is the most competitive city in Asia and ranked globally as the third most important city in the world after New York City and London. (Vadaketh, 2012) Another study combining factors from several world rankings has Singapore ranked 7th overall in a report by Richard Florida. (Florida, 2012) The only other Asian cities ranked above Singapore in his analysis are Tokyo and Hong Kong. Both of these cities followed Singapore’s lead in establishing a financial market. Tokyo is the largest city in the world but it cannot take advantage of a diversified multi-cultural synergy being primarily ethnic Japanese. Hong Kong, another vacated colony of the British Empire while more diverse like Singapore is enjoying the continued free market economy left in the wake of the British departure. Asia shifted from Hong Kong to Singapore in 1997 at the end of the British 100-year lease. Now under the Chinese rule it has continued to thrive as a major financial center of Asia complementing instead of competing with Singapore like two gas stations do on alternate corners of the same street. South Korea and Taiwan are on the other two corners making up the four Asian Tigers. The Human Development Index of 2011 ranked Singapore 26th in the world. Only three other Asian countries listed above Singapore were Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong. Several other lists project Singapore to increase to 22nd in the world.

Since 1965, Singapore has experienced real growth at 8% annually.  In 2010, Singapore’s real GDP at 14.471 percent was the third fastest growing economy in the world behind Qatar and Paraguay. (Smith, et al., 2010) The relatively stable US dollar has been the bench-mark for many years for which to compare the strength of foreign currencies. The Singapore Dollar (SD) has steadily gained ground on the US dollar over the years. In 1987, the conversion rate was close to two SD to every one U.S. Dollar (USD). Today the conversion rate is 1.25 SD to one USD. While the SD continues to gain leverage a disparity within the Singapore working population emerges from increasing the immigrant working population creating a separate class of people.
 
“Singapore the global city” may be increasingly different from “Singapore of the heartlands.” For the city’s long-term stability—which depends on the happiness and well-being of all citizens—there is a need to ensure that Singapore develops not as these two separate socio-economic narratives, but as one, where every Singaporean can tap into and be part of the competitive, global city.” (Vadaketh, 2012)

Could there be a disconnect as the old guard fades away and the void is filled by non-Singaporeans much like has been described in Brussels where the UN headquarters are completely disconnected from the local population? This could have a negative effect on local, national and global economic systems.

Current Developmental Status and Underlying Causes of the Problem

Singapore’s success follows similar patterns of fertility models within industrialized nations. Highly educated populations become more career focused. The populations of industrialized countries tend to put off marriage and family until much later in life and when they do marry they end up having fewer children. Not only do they have fewer children, they have them much later in life. This may be an underlying cause of the reduced fertility replacement in the Singapore.
There are other contributing factors. Has a natural mechanism been switched where people stop reproducing? Could it be that densely populated nations with an obvious lack of sustainable food could cause people to naturally select not to have children? Consider the lack of available housing for families to plant roots and grow. Of course there are other theories about selecting a lifestyle without children as more desirable in a vibrant metropolis full of entertainment options. The freedom to enjoy all that the city has to offer could be more appealing than starting and raising a family. Another possibility to explore could be in studying the society that Singapore built from a survey of those who grew up there. Was the youth experience of the current work force so difficult that they would not wish the experience upon their own children?  
The parallels can be drawn about the USA’s low fertility with an immigration replacement strategy. Looking at this issue helps us to look at ourselves and understand the challenges that we face in population ahead. The model for Singapore is really the American model. Start out with a new land and invite the best the world has to offer to come and work. Much like what has happened in the USA bringing in the worlds finest citizens that dared to make the journey. The descendants of Singaporeans all came to Singapore to work. There is something to be said for countries that accept the best and brightest that the world has to offer. The fact that they end up in America or Singapore means they are the worlds most daring and adventurous people. How do you get people to work harder when they travel great distances to get to work to begin with? What if you make home ownership possible?
One of the motivations that has propelled Singapore’s population to work so hard is home ownership. The workers have the ability for apartment ownership. This motivation has caused the Industrialized fertility rate to decline due to putting off marriage and children later in life. The country is looking at increasing families and encouraging having children. The widening gap is filled by increasing the immigration of workers to supplement the shortfalls in the number of births. (National Population and talent division, 2012) For both of these initiatives housing is limited.
Comparing again to the American system of the dream of home ownership, Singapore established the ability of the workers to own their own apartment. This is the cornerstone of a consumption society critical to free market economies. Because with home ownership begins the need to fill the space with goods. At first, furniture to sit on and the necessities of a bed to sleep in and then collections begin which could be trinkets or electronics. To buy and consume more goods is the grease in the free market society. Wants eventually turn into debts and this is primary the motivation for working. In Singapore, the cost of this home ownership is exorbitant, well beyond the means of the average citizen. In signing for the debt of the ownership it in effect is enslaving them for life to pay back the debts in the cost of their dwelling and filling it up with a collection of goods. This makes for a highly productive society that thinks it is free when in actuality the invisible chains of debt are an unrecognized burden. Not to place a value upon this common motivation within the free market system this adds complexity to the decision to raise a family. If the cost of home ownership is so high, the thought of raising a family could be out of the reach of the common man and woman. Currently Singapore has begun subsidizing families with a benefit package of  totaling $140,000SD. But even with the subsidizing of families the fertility rate is already so far behind that is way too late to change the course of Singapore’s spiraling population decline. Not to mention that the subsidizing package is not having the desired effect. There may be other barriers to starting families that have yet to be understood.
Free trade at the globes primary logistic hub may not induce fond thoughts of settling down and raising children. Consider the incoming supplies that may cause potential families to think twice about settling down. Singapore imports over 99% of its food. The potential for food supply disruption could be a reason in itself for second thoughts about raising kids.
Since the Trans-Pacific Partnership was implemented in 2004, the U.S.A. has benefited with a surplus trade to Singapore. 90% increase in trade since 2003. In 2011, 65 Billion US dollars in trade importing 24 billion and exporting 42 billion which included machinery, mineral oil, aircraft, medical equipment, and food. Agricultural products totaled $618 million in dairy, poultry, and fruits (U.S. Trade Representative, 2012)
The fact that Singapore does not have any agricultural production should be highlighted here, as they are vulnerable to a disruption of trade by a climatic event. Singapore is located at sea level and due to its location next at a choke point could magnify the effects of a horrendous climatic event. Sea level rise is expected to rise 1 meter in the next 100 years, which will dramatically change the coastline unless dikes are built to hold back the sea. Could these also provide clues to why decisions to raise children in Singapore are not ideal? Men and women want a safe and stable place from which to grow a family together.
This year the post WWII baby boomers in Singapore are reaching retirement age, coinciding with the weakest fertility rate in the world.  Since they are not able to replace their population by marriage and having children, the strategy Singapore is putting forward is to attract new talent from abroad increasing immigration.  (National Population and talent division, 2012)
With the 900,000 retirees estimated by 2030 and the low replacement fertility rate, Singapore would have a much smaller working population. This 900,000 represents ¼ of the total working population. The median age of the population is shifting from 38 to 47 years old by 2030 with only 2.1 workers for every retiree. The world median age is 28.4. The family structure is shifting to more elderly then children. Many Singaporeans are immigrating away to other countries. The majority of marriages have been between Singaporeans and non-Singaporean’s, increasing the diversification of the population or drawing it away to other parts of the globe.
The government is concerned about the added cost of healthcare and long-term care for elderly. With fewer workers the economy will decline reducing revenue and requiring budget cuts unless an immigrant population is brought in to replace the retirees. And this is what the government is doing. But back to uncovering the potential reason why men and women are not too keen about settling down in Singapore to raise a family may be as simple as considering basic safety. There are much more complex issues concerning a safe place from which to grow a family.
Environmental factors to consider are the oil refineries operated in Singapore. Shell oil’s largest refinery in the world is located in Singapore. Combined with all the other refineries, Singapore processes 1.3 million barrels of oil per day. This equates to 577.6 million metric tons of carbon emissions just from oil refineries alone. The Jury results are in the IPCC that this is an anthropomorphic contributing factor in global climate change. Singapore is well aware of the local effects from acid rain and smog. Climate change is a reality the effects of which are being felt everywhere. Probably the biggest challenge effecting Singapore is the potential for sea level to rise one meter in the next 100 years (Tan N. , 2008)
One of the critical environmental factors to consider is not only the rising tide of retirees but also the climatic effect of sea level rise. The expectation for Singapore is a one meter rise in sea level over the next 100 years from the gradual warming of the atmosphere. The rising sea level is expected to be more severe in the Western Pacific due to the coriolis effect which is moving the rising mass of sea toward the East coast of Asia. But there are also the unforeseen climatic events from nature’s grab bag. There is a highly likely possibility of a catastrophic climatic event such as a large earthquake with an accompanying tsunami wave causing wide spread devastation to the low lying lands near the mouth of the Malacca Straights. This could be amplified by the narrowing 3-mile wide choke point adjacent to Singapore’s location. Any large wave starting down the straight would build some intensity by being squeezed through the narrowest point of the strait next to Singapore. These challenges are as difficult as the initial ones faced by Singapore and require a political brilliance to sort through the options and come up with the best solution with the potential to cover all of main issues effecting Singapore’s future.

Political structure

“…We cannot offer our next generation any fixed formula for success, or even any set goals in life. They will face new circumstances and problems. They will need to think through and work out their own solutions. But we must equip them with the basic attitudes, values and instinct, which make them Singaporeans.“This is the common culture that will give them a shared perception of life, and draw them closer together as one people when confronted with serious problems. This will give them a well-founded faith in the country’s future. This is the DNA to be passed from one generation to the next.” (Deputy Prime Minister, now Prime Minister, Mr. Lee Hsien Loong – son of Lee Kuan Yew – speaking at the launch of National Education, 1997.) (Soliven, 2008)

Much like the United States was once a colony of Great Britain, Singapore has also been blessed with the English common law system and a Parliamentary republic form of government. While America evolved into a two party republic of a new form, Singapore has studiously sent their brightest minds to study in England. This has enhanced the functioning of their young republic.
Singapore gained independence from the Malaysian Federation on August 9th, 1965. This was an unexpected turn of events as they fully intended to work within the Malaysian Federation. The differences were race related as mentioned previously. Singapore went to work from the start and have never looked back. The democratic elections are held every six years for the President and every five years for the members of Parliament. Eight seats are reserved for candidates who don’t get elected to office but that the other members of Parliament feel are needed in the deliberations. These eight seats can be nominated. I thought this was an interesting law written in their constitution.

“Singapore’s political leaders are directly responsible for the radical socio-economic transformation of the last few decades. After independence was won, Singaporeans were propelled by the People’s Action Party (PAP) along a path paved with Chinese work ethic. For almost 20 years, the average economic growth rate fluttered around 9% – one of the highest rates of constant growth the world has ever seen.” (Soliven, 2008)
  Again, like the United States, the strengths of the country are due to a varied and diverse population. Singapore’s strength comes from this diverse population. I think the greatest weakness in Singapore’s political system has to be the fact that they are not in tune with how vulnerable they are to a disruption by a calamitous climatic event. While they are doing well financially, money does have its limits. All the money in the world is worthless in the face of a climatic catastrophe such as a tsunami’s devastating magnified effects in being pinched at Singapore’s choke point. This could have a domino effect on the entire global market temporarily disrupting 80% of the globes commerce. If the ships are somehow blocked from reaching Singapore for any reason or at any degree it has the potential to set off a domino effect halting the cogs of global trade. What if the million plus barrels per day refineries are disrupted? We are talking about a major power disruption. How long could the 5 million people survive and how important are they to keeping the cogs of trade free flowing?

The economy of Singapore is best described as a mixed economy. Although the country strongly advocates free-market policies and practices, government intervention is also evident in macroeconomic management and major factors of production such as land, [labor] and capital resources. This innovative and highly successful economic system – where both the market and the state have equally strong roles in the government – is dubbed as the Singapore Model. To date however, the Singapore Model or “Singapore Inc.” has proven to be extremely successful. Globally and regionally, the Singapore economy has demonstrated astounding resilience to financial crises such as the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis or the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Singapore is also the only Asian country to have AAA credit ratings from all three major credit rating agencies – Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch. According to the 2011 Index of Economic Freedom, Singapore is the 2nd freest economy in the world. (Smith, et al., 2010)

Proposed policy options

In the short term the policies of subsidized families and Immigration will put a band-aid on the problem of the smallest workforce to retirement ratio on the globe. People need room to raise a family. Adding more immigrants doesn’t help address the lack of housing issue. This paper doesn’t even approach the question of should you build more housing on an island that has no food production. Even if I could answer that one, where can you build on a island that is already at capacity and shrinking threatened by the sea level rise? If natural selection in human reproduction has finally reached the limit, then why try to go beyond it and push the boundary?
I propose a public works project to upscale the quality of living for the retirees to uproot them from their apartments where they are entrenched to make room for young families to flourish. Create a hinterland for the island nation of Singapore where the retiring population would be drawn out of the city.
When looking at several of the problems that Singapore is facing including the environmental one of climate change and sea level rise, and the dangerous lack of agricultural production. The most sustainable solution for the nation of Singapore would be to reclaim the sea around the island in a creative way wherever possible that provides for additional housing, agricultural production, and a barrier to sea level expansion. They are already discussing the construction of a dike to keep the expanding sea from reducing the size of the island. Why not make the dike wide enough and big enough to build a string of agricultural villas for the elderly to live out their golden years peacefully employed growing gardens around the rim of the country.
Create an agricultural zone around the seas edge by establish a border around Singapore. Build a thick wall around the entire nation several meters tall and thick able to withstand the worst-case scenario imagined for a climatic event. Make it thick enough to support multiple community dwellings for the elderly and agricultural production all around the edge. Teach the elderly a new trade of urban agriculture. Bring the barrier inland around the sea ports to continue unimpeded access from the sea. The sea barrier could also support a train for additional transportation around the countries rim to provide sight seeing for tourists to travel to the rim of villas.
It is a global imperative to protect this most important city from the challenges of climate change and population implosion. Singapore has the financial ability to undertake this project. They have access to the engineering minds to properly plan it out and they have the work ethic to see such a large-scale project through fruition. It is highly likely that this proposal could be seriously considered as a solution for Singapore’s continued growth well into the next 50 years. Singapore needs to protect itself and the rest of the globe from a climatic event that could otherwise disrupt the free flow of trade.

Figure 1: Singapore’s Population Bubble. This shows an aging population reaching retirement without a replacement fertility rate to support them. (Bourne, 2007)

Figure 2: Map of Singapore. Location at the corner of the worlds Main Strait through which 80 % of the worlds commerce flows.

 

Figures 3: Singapore Flag. two equal horizontal bands of red (top) and white; near the hoist side of the red band, there is a vertical, white crescent (closed portion is toward the hoist side) partially enclosing five white five-pointed stars arranged in a circle; red denotes brotherhood and equality; white signifies purity and virtue; the waxing crescent moon symbolizes a young nation on the ascendancy; the five stars represent the nation's ideals of democracy, peace, progress, justice, and equality Source: (Central Intelligence Agency, 2012)

References
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Central Intelligence Agency. (2012, July 17). The World Factbook. Retrieved July 27, 2012, from East & SouthEast Asia:: Singapore: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sn.html
Dixon, P. (2011, Nov 2). Future of Singapore As Hub For Asia's Emerging Markets - Future of Asia And Decline of Europe / America. Retrieved July 29, 2012, from GlobalChange.com: http://www.globalchange.com/future-of-singapore-as-hub-for-asias-emerging-markets.htm
Florida, R. (2012, May 8). What is the World's Most Economically Powerful City? the Atlantic .
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National Population and talent division. (2012). Our Population Our Future. Issues Paper, Republic of Singapore, Prime Ministers Office, Singapore.
Smith, D., Sachs, J. D., Lin, M., Blejer, M., Yeyati, E. L., Mintzberg, H., et al. (2010, March 18). The Miracle of Asia - Singapore Documentary. Retrieved July 29, 2012, from Singapore Economy: http://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/singapore/?page=full
Soliven, P. S. (2008, June 12). Recipe for Singapore's economic miracle - governance and education. Retrieved July 29, 2012, from Philstar.com: http://www.philstar.com/article.aspx?articleid=67238
Tan, J. (2012, April 24). Immigration will help solve Singapore's population problem. Retrieved July 28, 2012, from Yahoo News: http://sg.news.yahoo.com/immigration-will-help-solve-singapore's-population-problem--paper.html
Tan, N. (2008, Jan 29). Environmental Issues in Singapore. Retrieved July 28, 2012, from slideshare: http://www.slideshare.net/micamonkey/environmental-issues-in-singapore
U.S. Trade Representative. (2012). Singapore. Retrieved July 29, 2012, from Office of the United States Trade Representative: http://www.ustr.gov/countries-regions/southeast-asia-pacific/singapore
Vadaketh, S. T. (2012, March 13). Singapore is Asia's most competitive city: New EIU report. Retrieved July 28, 2012, from The Online Citizen: http://theonlinecitizen.com/2012/03/singapore-is-asias-most-competitive-city-new-eiu-report/
Yew, L. K. (2000). From Third World To First - Singapore and the Asian Economic Boom. Singapore, Singapore: Harper.